South Sudan is experiencing a surge of violence just two months after the South Sudanese voted overwhelmingly in favour of secession - raising concern that independence won’t ultimately bring peace. The January 2011 peaceful referendum left issues such as oil-sharing, borders and citizenship unresolved - bringing to the fore the dispute over the country's oil-rich area of Abyei as a very urgent issue on the negotiation table, ahead of the official announcement of south Sudan's separation in July.
Recent fighting between rebellious militias and the southern army - the Sudan People's Liberation Army - is fuelling speculation of renewed war. Hundreds of southerners are estimated to have died in the recent clashes. In addition, troops from Khartoum are moving into the region just north of Abyei.
Rebels unite against the southern government
Rebel militias in Southern Sudan have formed a new armed movement against their southern government. Lead by renegade General George Athor, who rebelled after disputing the 2010 elections as flawed, the Southern Sudan Democratic Movement unites five different armed militias spanning across four of South Sudan's ten states.
The formation of the new rebel coalition confirms the spread of discontent among different groups in the south, both among old warlords and new dissidents, posing an existential threat to the world's newest nation before it even officially comes on the scene.
The cause of the uprisings is complex and partly linked to the government's domination by the south's largest tribe, the Dinka, and unfinished business within the South Sudan army. The Carter Center issued a statement last month calling for an "inclusive transition process in Southern Sudan", criticizing the party for its "dominance over all decisions" and its prevention of "meaningful participation from opposition members". The South Sudan government claims the rebels are proxies for the independence-resistant North. The clashes however, raise fears about the government's ability to maintain peace and stability across such a vast and ethnically diverse region.
Buildup of troops and weapons in Abyei
South Sudan contains approximately 75 percent of the Sudan's oil production and the central region of Abyei is a major cause of tension between the South and North. While Abyei was promised a referendum, it was not held after northern and southern leaders disagreed on who was eligible to vote. Both the North and the South claim parts of this fertile and oil-producing territory, that northern Arab Misseriya cattle herders use to graze their cattle, co-existing alongside the Ngok Dinka farmers, who are loyal to the south and want independence from the north.
UN peacekeepers recently confirmed sightings of heavily armed north and south armies in Abyei. The newly appointed US Envoy to Sudan warned only a few days ago that the Abyei conflict could spark war. Princeton Lyman described the situation in Abyei as "very tense." By bringing in military hardware, both parties have violated the terms of a recently reached security deal stating that forces would be withdrawn.
The Satellite Sentinel Project, a U.S. satellite monitoring group said last week that its images show that the north has deployed heavy offensive weaponry such as helicopter gunships and tanks close to the disputed Abyei region. "The introduction of heavy air and ground attack capacity by SAF represents a significant build-up of firepower in a tense region," said Enough Project Executive Director John C. Bradshaw. Adding, "the international community has the responsibility to protect civilians by using its diplomatic clout to ensure that northern and southern Sudan resolve the standoff over Abyei peacefully."
